Although no exact tally of expelled Germans exists, the following
figures represent a rough estimation of their numbers using
various census and rationing records, with help from the Zentrum
Gegen Vertreibungen:
Population |
|
Germany east of 1945 border (1944 ration
office records) |
9,758,000 (est) |
Poland (1944 ration office records) |
2,140,000 (est) |
Czechoslovakia (1930 census) |
3,070,899 |
Hungary (cited by Austrian government 1940) |
845,281 |
Romania (1930 census) |
745,421 |
Total |
16,500,000 (est) |
Konrad Adenauer, first Chancellor of West Germany, estimated that
of the some 13 million ethnic Germans left outside of
Occupied Germany by the 1945 borders, only 7.3 million
ever returned:
"According to American estimates, some 13.8 million Germans were
expelled from Eastern Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary,
etc. 7.8 million arrived in the eastern and western
zones. 6 millions Germans disappeared from the face of
the Earth. They are dead and gone . . . A large
number of able-bodied men and women were taken to Russia.
The expulsion of these 13-14 million people from their homes, home
which their forefathers had inhabited for centuries, has inflicted
unending suffering . . . the expulsions began with the Potsdam
Agreement of August 2, 1945. I am convinced that history
will judge this document harshly" (Konrad Adenauer, "Erinnerungen
1945 – 1953," DVA, Stuttgart, 1965, S. 186).
Novelist and historical writer James Bacque, compiled one compelling study on
subject. Crimes
and Mercies, although by no means definitive, points to the
work yet to be done. Using raw census data, Bacque has
sought to estimate the actual human costs on Germany in the period
of 1946-1950.
Minimum (est.) |
Maximum (est.) |
|
Expelled Germans (1945-50) |
2,100,000 |
6,000,000 |
Prisoners of War (1941-50) |
1,500,000 |
2,000,000 |
Residents (1946-50) |
5,700,000 |
5,700,000 |
Total |
9,300,000 |
13,700,000 |
His total, 5.7 million, counts only
deaths that went unreported in official population figures,
and as a result has no forensic evidence whatsoever.
Census data and arithmetic alone produce that massive
number. According to Bacque, after official civilian
death, birth, immigration and emigration rates are added up,
some 5.7 million Germans are missing.
The following table, using Bacque's census data model,
estimates what population growth should have been.
Difference (1946-50) |
|
Births |
+4,176,430 |
Deaths |
–3,235,539 |
Returning Prisoners of War |
+2,600,000 (est) |
Expelled Germans |
+6,000,000 (est) |
Emigration |
–600,000 (est) |
Total |
+9,000,000 (est) |
Note: the estimates above do not reflect any forensic
evidence, nor are they substantiated by sources other than
Bacque himself.
If, as Bacque calculates, the German population grew by 9
million between 1946 and 1950, then the total population
for 1950 would stand at about 74 million, in
accordance with the 1946 census. In reality, 1950 census
counts only 69,346,000, a shortfall of 5.7
million.
Mortality Statistics
for the German Population
Another third-party effort at tallying the total deaths among
Germans during and after World War II
Recommended
Books
A list of mass-market accounts on the subject of Europe after the
end of World War II