DELUSIONS ON GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY

LARGE GAP BETWEEN REALITY AND PREDICTION

In July of 2017, United States Energy Secretary Rick Perry claimed we were "entering a new age of American energy dominance." President Trump reflected that view “We’ve got underneath us more oil than anybody, and nobody knew it until five years ago” (Oil Price). So far in 2017, the U.S. has imported more than 9 million barrels of crude oil per day, and net imports have averaged more than 7.3 million barrels per day. How exactly can the world’s biggest importer of oil become the "supplier" upon which other countries depend?

In the charts below, when looking at the proven amount of oil versus what is predicted (2PCX), North America clearly does not have the most oil.

What is also unsettling is that the amount of oil we know the world has (proven supply) is far less than predicted supply. And yet many sources use predicted supply as a rubric upon which to base the global economic future.


(Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington)


GLOBAL OIL PROVED RESERVES IN BILLIONS OF BARRELS ACCORDING TO BP DATA FOR 2016

Oil reserves in World 1706.670032
Oil reserves in North America 227.4753425
Oil reserves in S. & Cent. America 327.8584529
Oil reserves in Europe & Eurasia 161.5097505
Oil reserves in Middle East 813.46643
Oil reserves in Africa 127.9737887
Oil reserves in Asia Pacific 48.38626775

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

BP Reserves in BB Interactive Chart


GLOBAL OIL PROVED RESERVES IN BILLIONS OF BARRELS ACCORDING TO U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

Brazil 16.1841
Canada 170.863
China 25.13212
Iran 157.53
Iraq 143.069
Kuwait 101.5
Mexico 9.711
Nigeria 37.07
Norway 5.138767
Qatar 25.244
Russia 80
Saudi Arabia 266.578
United Arab Emirates 97.8
United States 35.23
Venezuela 299.953

U.S. Energy Information Administration


PROVEN AND PREDICTED OIL SUPPLY ACCORDING TO RYSTAD

(Rystad Energy)

1P is what is real

2PCX is what is predicted

Rystad Energy provides services and products to E&P and oil field service companies, investors, investment banks, and governments. The Company offers consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy consulting, and research products.

The new reserves data from Rystad Energy (the chart above) distinguishes between reserves in existing fields, in new projects and potential reserves in recent discoveries and even in yet undiscovered fields.


THE DELUSION OF "100 YEARS" OF NATURAL GAS

Some of the claims of a great American age of energy independence are based on predictions of the supply of natural gas. Yet there is only a guarantee we'll have enough natural gas for the next 11 years, not 100 years.

[Don't publish this chart]

(Source)

The reality is that the world energy supply may be much more limited than our leaders think. That is why it is so important to accelerate the switch from carbon and methane based fuels to renewable energy sources like wind and solar (of which there is actually an abundant and unlimited supply). There is also the matter of global and environmental safety to consider. Can the world handle 11 more years of a natural gas based economy in the United States? See our reports below.


OIL SUPPLY

Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (U.S. Energy Information Administration)

International Energy Agency Statistics

Statistical Review of World Energy (BP)

World Predicted Oil Supply Versus Reality (Rystad)

Permian Oil Reserves Are Grossly Exaggerated (Oil Price)

Venezuela's Oil Reserves Are Probably Vastly Overstated (Forbes, 7-1-16)

WikiLeaks cable: Saudi oil estimates may have been exaggerated (CNN, 2-9-11)


NATURAL GAS

The U.S. is Counting on A Long-Term Abundance of Oil and Natural Gas - But What if the Boom is Just a Bubble? (Shale Bubble)

McClenon - key player in U.S. shale boom - found dead in car crash after charged with conspiring to rig bids for oil and natural gas leases (CNBC)


WORLD FUTURE FUND REPORTS

The U.S. Shift to Natural Gas - A Threat to Life on the Planet?

Building a Sustainable Future:  An Outline of Reform

The Need For a Manhattan Project on Renewable Energy